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/SEM
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Select Medical Holdings Corp

Select Medical Holdings Corp

SEM
$16.51USD↑+0.00%+0.00 today

MARKET CAP

2.0B

P/E (TTM)

15.6x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$17 – $17

52W RANGE

$17
$17

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

SEM remains in a Stage 2 advance with a clear higher highs/higher lows structure, yet short-term momentum has flattened and price is stalled at horizontal resistance. We defer engagement and look to re-enter on pullbacks into the rising 9/20/50 EMA and 50 DMA support zone.

  • ↑Q1 revenue increased 5% YoY to $1.6B across all divisions
  • ↑Inpatient rehab revenue surged 14% YoY to $351.9M with 12% census gain
  • ↓Adjusted EBITDA declined 6.5% YoY to $141.6M, impacted by $13–14M acquisition costs
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Select Medical Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SEM) is a leading healthcare provider that specializes in inpatient rehabilitation, critical illness recovery, and outpatient rehabilitation services. The company operates within the post-acute care sector, poised to benefit from structural growth stemming from demographic trends, regulatory changes, and an increasing demand for rehabilitation services. Select Medical is currently in the process of a "Take Private" transaction, fundamentally changing its operations and capital structure.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 revenue increased 5% YoY to $1.6B across all divisions
  • ↑Inpatient rehab revenue surged 14% YoY to $351.9M with 12% census gain
  • ↑Management plans to add 275 new inpatient rehab beds by 2027
  • ↑Projecting ~2.6% rise in Medicare reimbursement to boost margins
  • ↑Strong profitability and high earnings yield with positive ROE and low volatility
  • ↑Positive analyst revisions and robust momentum factors underpin upside

Bear says

  • ↓Adjusted EBITDA declined 6.5% YoY to $141.6M, impacted by $13–14M acquisition costs
  • ↓EPS dropped to $0.35 from $0.44 YoY on margin pressures
  • ↓Total debt stands at $1.9B with 3.75x leverage driving $28.3M interest expense
  • ↓Forecasted $15M startup losses in 2026 if bed expansions underperform
  • ↓Rising Medicare Advantage denial rates are pressuring admissions and conversions
  • ↓Negative sales growth trends and high short interest heighten downside risk

Investment themes with SEM

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Health Care Providers↓ -0.61%

UNH · CVS · HCA

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-02-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We ended the quarter with that leverage of $3.75 under our senior secured credit agreement and $443.5 million of availability on our revolving loans.
  • On March 2nd, we announced that Select Medical entered into an agreement to be acquired by a consortium led by our Executive Chairman, Robert Ortenzio, together with Martin Jackson and Welsh Carson Anderson and Stowe. Under the terms of the agreement, unaffiliated shareholders will receive $16.50 per share in cash.
  • So far this year, we've added 166 beds across three newly opened inpatient rehabilitation hospitals, including our fifth hospital with Baylor Scott & White in Temple, Texas, a new hospital with Cox Health in Ozark, Missouri, and the fourth hospital in our Banner Health Joint Venture in Tucson, Arizona. Across the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, we expect to add 275 more beds.

Bear points

  • At the end of the quarter, we had $1.9 billion of total debt outstanding and $25.7 million of cash on the balance sheet.
  • Interest expense for the quarter was $28.3 million compared to $29.1 million in the same quarter last year.
  • We did see a decrease in conversion from Medicare Advantage. And it was more so in our long-term acute care hospitals, as well as our inpatient rehab also saw a decline.
Read full transcript analysis ›