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Super Micro Computer Inc

Super Micro Computer Inc

SMCI
$24.18USD↓-2.03%-0.50 today

MARKET CAP

15.6B

P/E (TTM)

10.8x

FWD P/E

7.8x

DAY RANGE

$23 – $25

52W RANGE

$19
$62

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

SMCI remains in a confirmed Stage 4 decline under a sideways secular trend, with persistent lower highs and lower lows under declining EMAs. Medium-term bias is bearish, permitting only sell-side engagement, and short-term timing favors selling into rallies toward the 9/21 EMA zone. Despite extreme oversold readings, no clear exhaustion is evident, so selling now into pullbacks is appropriate.

  • ↑Q3 FY2026 revenue of $10.2B rose 123% YoY, driven by AI infrastructure
  • ↑Enterprise channel sales hit $2.8B (+46% YoY), now 28% of total revenue
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and 11% gross margin raise value-trap concerns
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) is a leading provider of high-performance computing solutions, specializing in servers and storage technologies, primarily for data centers and AI applications. Positioned within the high-growth AI infrastructure sector, Supermicro leverages its advanced technologies, including liquid cooling and innovative data center building block solutions, to meet the increasing demands of cloud and enterprise customers. The company stands out with a strong emphasis on energy efficiency and scalability in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

Bull says

  • ↑Q3 FY2026 revenue of $10.2B rose 123% YoY, driven by AI infrastructure
  • ↑Enterprise channel sales hit $2.8B (+46% YoY), now 28% of total revenue
  • ↑AI server backlog stands at $39B, underlining sustained order momentum
  • ↑Q4 guidance of $11B–$12.5B, with DCBPS aiming to deliver >20% of net income
  • ↑Forward P/E of 9.8 and $26 stock price vs $88 fair value imply undervaluation
  • ↑Strong liquidity and manageable debt support operations; 2.1% dividend yield adds income

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings yield and 11% gross margin raise value-trap concerns
  • ↓Q3 non-GAAP gross margin at 10.1% remains below peer averages
  • ↓Indictment of employees triggers regulatory scrutiny and customer confidence risk
  • ↓Supply-chain shortages drove Q3 operating cash flow to –$6.6B, straining FCF
  • ↓Short interest is high and stock plunged 36% in a month, reflecting bearish bets
  • ↓Planned $7B capital raise may dilute equity; institutional ownership remains low

Investment themes with SMCI

Datacenter↑ +0.45%

Infrastructure powering data storage and cloud computing

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Networking & Connectivity Infrastructure↑ +0.56%

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High Beta↓ -0.12%

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Earnings Call · Q3 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-07-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • delivering the fastest time to online TTO in the industry, ensuring our customers can scale their AI factories quickly and most efficiently.
  • One of the most significant achievements this quarter was our gross margin recovery, which increased significantly to 10.1% non-GAAP, representing a 58% improvement over the 6.4% non-GAAP reported in the previous quarter.
  • We are committed to achieving a sustainable double-digit gross margin model by increasing our focus on the enterprise market and our DCPBS business.

Bear points

  • Cash flow used in operations for Q3 was $6.6 billion compared to $24 million used in the prior quarter, negatively impacted by a reduction of $10 billion in accounts payable and an increase in inventory of $581 million.
  • Q3 closing inventory was $11.1 billion, up from $10.6 billion in Q2, indicating potential overstock issues.
Read full transcript analysis ›