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Semtech Corp

Semtech Corp

SMTC
$124.96USD↓-2.11%-2.69 today

MARKET CAP

11.6B

P/E (TTM)

67.9x

FWD P/E

41.9x

DAY RANGE

$114 – $128

52W RANGE

$46
$177

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

SMTC remains in a Stage 2 advancing uptrend but the active blow-off top pattern and heavy distribution volume have flipped the medium-term bias bearish. Price has broken down below the 9/21 EMA zone and is rejecting these levels, confirming bearish momentum. With no mean-reversion support and continued short-EMA resistance, we execute a sell now at the EMA resistance zone to capture the next leg of the distribution phase.

  • ↑Q1 FY26 revenue $251.1M (+22% YoY), data center up 143% YoY
  • ↑Adjusted gross margin 53.5% and EBITDA margin 22.1% reflect efficiency
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and extremely low book-to-price imply overvaluation
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ: SMTC) is a leading semiconductor company specializing in analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products, focusing on data center solutions, IoT applications, and connectivity technologies. Positioned advantageously in the rapidly evolving semiconductor landscape, Semtech is driving growth through innovations in fiber optics and low-power semiconductors, particularly in response to increasing demand driven by AI and cloud computing.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 FY26 revenue $251.1M (+22% YoY), data center up 143% YoY
  • ↑Adjusted gross margin 53.5% and EBITDA margin 22.1% reflect efficiency
  • ↑Data center segment projected >50% growth in FY27 driven by AI demand
  • ↑CopperEdge optics launch targets next-gen AI connectivity opportunities
  • ↑Net debt cut to $396.2M supports planned capacity expansion
  • ↑Strong momentum factors and positive earnings revisions signal analyst optimism

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings yield and extremely low book-to-price imply overvaluation
  • ↓Weak balance sheet quality factors indicate leverage and liquidity risks
  • ↓High volatility translates to elevated share-price swings and market risk
  • ↓Intensifying competition from NVIDIA, Broadcom and Intel may pressure margins
  • ↓Rising R&D spend could compress margins if growth lags expectations
  • ↓Execution delays in new product launches could hinder revenue momentum

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Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-27-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • the engagement with other customers for the application of the Copper Edge product is really very, very exciting and encouraging. There are four or five different application and use cases go beyond just the scale-up interconnect between different RECs are materializing, and some of them are completing the qualification and just waiting for the deployment in their next-generation platforms. We do believe the revenue from other customers will come in Q4 timeframe and start ramping from there.
  • For Q1, net sales were a record $251.1 million, above the midpoint of our outlook, and up 22% year-over-year.
  • Adjusted gross margin was 53.5%, up 30 basis points sequentially and up 370 basis points year-over-year.

Bear points

  • Copper Edge, you know, right now with the anchor customer is not zero, but it's lingering until the next generation. But with other customers, it's going to start contributing more meaningfully in Q4 and ramping in the next fiscal year.
  • I feel that even though the Q2 revenue compared to Q1 will be slightly down, but that's not a seasonality.
  • the gross margin on the cellular module's also came in down meaningfully both quarter and quarter and year on year.
Read full transcript analysis ›