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SPS Commerce Inc

SPS Commerce Inc

SPSC
$65.59USD↓-0.24%-0.16 today

MARKET CAP

2.4B

P/E (TTM)

15.0x

FWD P/E

12.8x

DAY RANGE

$65 – $67

52W RANGE

$49
$144

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

SPSC is in Stage 2 – Advancing with a confirmed momentum breakout and repaired EMAs. The medium-term directional bias is bullish, but price is currently extended above key EMAs and in extreme overbought territory. Execution is deferred until a disciplined pullback into rising EMAs or structural support provides a cleaner entry opportunity. Long-term downtrend persists, anchoring structural caution.

  • ↑100th straight quarter of revenue growth: $192.1M, +6% YoY.
  • ↑Recurring revenue rose 7% YoY, driven by 8% growth in fulfillment services across 54,200 customers.
  • ↓Amazon revenue recovery business on a negative trajectory, expected to further drag results.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSC) is a leading provider of cloud-based supply chain management solutions, facilitating connections between trading partners to enhance performance within the retail ecosystem. The company has built a substantial network serving over 54,000 customers, focusing its offerings on analytics, fulfillment, and compliance services. Positioned in the dynamic retail technology sector, SPS Commerce is adapting to evolving market conditions and customer demands, particularly as it leverages AI to enhance operational efficiency and conduct real-time collaboration in complex global supply chains.

Bull says

  • ↑100th straight quarter of revenue growth: $192.1M, +6% YoY.
  • ↑Recurring revenue rose 7% YoY, driven by 8% growth in fulfillment services across 54,200 customers.
  • ↑Q1 buybacks totaled $47.1M and cash on hand stands at $154M, bolstering capital returns.
  • ↑MAX AI platform projected to safeguard up to 8% of revenue lost to stockouts.
  • ↑Analysts hold consensus with $91.54 average target suggesting significant upside potential.
  • ↑Strong earnings yield, upward earnings revisions, adequate liquidity and conservative debt levels support valuation.

Bear says

  • ↓Amazon revenue recovery business on a negative trajectory, expected to further drag results.
  • ↓Profitability metrics remain weak, limiting margin expansion and EPS growth.
  • ↓Stock momentum underperforms peers, signaling downward price trend.
  • ↓High short interest indicates market skepticism on stock outlook.
  • ↓Elevated churn risk in third-party segment due to increased subscription fees.
  • ↓Intensifying competition and macro headwinds could disrupt growth in retail tech.

Investment themes with SPSC

Software↓ -1.57%

Cloud-based digital tools powering business productivity and innovation

MSFT · ORCL · PLTR

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-02-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • So the more retailers we can support with revenue recovery, the more market that opens up for us there.
  • We're also making a number of enhancements to our analytics product and the underlying technology there in our analytics product to provide some more data access and even AI capabilities within the analytics product, which we're optimistic about.
  • As we've moved here into 2026, we just haven't seen that same level of pressure that we've seen in 2025. And as we've engaged with customers who have future renewals through the year, that does give us more confidence about that dynamic in 2026 versus what was definitely a challenge in 2025.

Bear points

  • That's the clarification because the revenue guide is also coming down and it relates to revenue recovery.
  • Amazon revenue recovery piece. If you look at the other portions of our business, the revenue recovery without Amazon is growing faster than the overall business.
  • Amazon revenue recovery
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