The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
StepStone Group Inc. (NASDAQ: STEP) is a leading player in the private markets investment space, offering a diverse portfolio of investment solutions including private equity, private debt, and infrastructure investments. As a private equity and venture capital firm, it specializes in providing tailored investment strategies with a strong focus on client-centric solutions. StepStone has been gaining traction within the asset management sector, particularly as individual investors increasingly seek curated exposure to the innovation economy and diversified asset classes in the wake of changing market conditions.
Bull says
- ↑Fee-related earnings rose 12% YoY to $105 M at a 40% margin.
- ↑Core FRE ex-retro fees reached $101 M, up 28% YoY.
- ↑Achieved $38 B in annual AUM additions, including $13.5 B in Q4.
- ↑Declared $0.83 total dividend per share (+23% YoY) and $100 M buyback.
- ↑Subscriptions hit $2.3 B this quarter; redemptions remained below 2%.
- ↑High liquidity, moderate size, and rate sensitivity boost resilience.
Bear says
- ↓GAAP net loss of $7.8 M reflects weak profitability.
- ↓Adjusted net income fell to $69 M (57 ¢/share) from $81 M (68 ¢).
- ↓Negative growth outlook and analyst revisions signal consensus downgrades.
- ↓Rising default risks and market volatility threaten fundraising momentum.
- ↓Heavy reliance on private wealth segment heightens concentration risk.
- ↓Weak profitability factors and high short interest suggest value trap.
Investment themes with STEP
Companies paying above-average dividends
Debt and equity trading fueling economic growth
Earnings Call · Q4 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- we generated fee-related earnings of $94.1 million, up 85% from the prior year quarter, and we generated an FRE margin of 44%.
- We earned $80.6 million in adjusted net income for the quarter, or 68 cents per share. This is up from $37.7 million, or 33 cents per share, in the fourth quarter of last fiscal year, driven by higher fee-related earnings and higher performance-related earnings.
- The full dividend payout related to this fiscal year is $1.36, up from last year's total of $0.99.
Bear points
- we reported a GAAP net loss attributable to Stepstone Group Incorporated of $18.5 million, or 24 cents per share.
- While we are cautiously optimistic based on recent progress made on trade policy, we expect that we will continue to operate in an environment characterized by uncertainty.
- do expect to see increased selling in the secondaries market.