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Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

STX
$787.66USD↑+5.66%+42.17 today

MARKET CAP

176.6B

P/E (TTM)

63.5x

FWD P/E

31.0x

DAY RANGE

$700 – $809

52W RANGE

$138
$1,145

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

STX remains in a Stage 4 decline with confirmed lower highs & lower lows. Medium-term bias is bearish, reinforced by the active Lower Highs & Lower Lows pattern. Currently, price is pulling back into declining EMAs amid oversold conditions, making immediate sell entries premature. Execution favors deferred sell-side engagement (Trim) into the confluence of the 9, 21, and 50 EMA on a rejection. A decisive close above the 21 EMA with follow-through would invalidate this bearish stance.

  • ↑Q3 2026 revenue rose 44% YoY to $3.1B, driven by strong AI and cloud demand.
  • ↑Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 47%, up 480 bps sequentially, underscoring operational leverage.
  • ↓Shares trade well above GF Value™ $160.87, indicating significant overvaluation versus fundamentals.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: STX) is a leading provider of mass capacity storage solutions, focused on hard disk drives (HDD) and solid-state drives (SSD), catering primarily to cloud service providers and data centers. The company is positioned at the forefront of increasing demand driven by the surge of data generation from AI applications, cloud computing, and digital transformations. Seagate's advanced technology, including Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR), is critical in addressing evolving storage requirements, especially within the data-centric sectors.

Bull says

  • ↑Q3 2026 revenue rose 44% YoY to $3.1B, driven by strong AI and cloud demand.
  • ↑Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 47%, up 480 bps sequentially, underscoring operational leverage.
  • ↑Generated $953M free cash flow; returned $191M via dividends and buybacks, showing cash-return discipline.
  • ↑Investing in HAMR technology to target 20%+ annual revenue growth from AI/data-center expansion.
  • ↑Analyst upgrades (Wells Fargo overweight; Citi PT $1,240) reflect rising confidence in growth outlook.
  • ↑Strong profitability and momentum factors plus high institutional ownership support sustained stock outperformance.

Bear says

  • ↓Shares trade well above GF Value™ $160.87, indicating significant overvaluation versus fundamentals.
  • ↓Weak earnings yield and low book-to-price metrics point to valuation and return concerns.
  • ↓High reliance on a few cloud customers risks large revenue fluctuations if contracts shift.
  • ↓Interest-rate sensitivity and potential cloud spending cuts in downturns could hurt cash flow.
  • ↓Ramp-up delays in HAMR/high-capacity HDDs pose execution risk and potential market share loss.
  • ↓Margin compression amid rising costs and elevated volatility could erode profits and amplify stock swings.

Investment themes with STX

High Beta↓ -0.12%

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Earnings Call · Q3 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-28-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We get more exabyte output as well, and that'll help drive margins. I think when you think about a three terabyte per platter, a four terabyte per platter, a five terabyte per platter drive, that value into the data center is enormous.
  • And We've executed really well against that, you know, maybe even better than I thought we would. We're pushing aerial density really aggressively, and the team's done a great job.
  • From different drivers, now I say pricing was actually better. Mixed transition was a bit faster. Now we can leverage more on the 40 terabyte So I'll say, yeah, I'm looking at what we have done in the last few quarters, and I don't see a reason why we should not do the same in the future.

Bear points

  • The total number of units is not really increasing. And I don't think it will unless we see a resurgence at the edge.
  • MOSAIC-4, is that sort of the model that gets you to go down to 20 terabyte hammer? And if so, like at what point of the MOSAIC-4 ranch do you think that you guys might have an opportunity to do that? Thanks.
  • The problem we have is demand is so strong in the public cloud that we don't have enough volume to also implement this lower capacity strategy based on the 4 terabytes per disk.
Read full transcript analysis ›