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TransDigm Group Inc

TransDigm Group Inc

TDG
$1,214.43USD↓-1.35%-16.68 today

MARKET CAP

67.9B

P/E (TTM)

37.9x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$1,209 – $1,254

52W RANGE

$1,124
$1,624

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

TDG remains in a Stage 4 decline with a bearish medium-term bias reinforced by active support failure and bearish pivot point patterns. Price is trading below declining EMAs and DMAs, with failed rally attempts into these levels. In the short term, oversold conditions have prompted a minor bounce that lacks clear acceptance above EMAs. The long-term uptrend on the 200 DMA remains intact. Recommend trimming exposure on any rally attempts into the declining EMAs.

  • ↑Revenue jumped 17% YoY to $10.36B in Q2 2026
  • ↑EBITDA margin at 52.6% underscores operational efficiency
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and poor book-to-price ratio suggest overvaluation
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) is a leading designer and manufacturer of proprietary aerospace components, operating in both commercial and defense sectors. The company derives approximately 90% of its revenue from aftermarket products that are known for their high margins and provide resilience during economic downturns. TransDigm's business model emphasizes strategic acquisitions and operational excellence to maximize shareholder value, particularly through proprietary innovative solutions tailored for the aerospace industry.

Bull says

  • ↑Revenue jumped 17% YoY to $10.36B in Q2 2026
  • ↑EBITDA margin at 52.6% underscores operational efficiency
  • ↑Generated $350M FCF in Q2; $2.5B full-year guidance
  • ↑Acquisitions of JetParts and Victor Sierra expand aftermarket reach
  • ↑Defense revenue rose 11% YoY on increased defense budgets
  • ↑High profitability factors and solid dividend yield appeal to income investors

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings yield and poor book-to-price ratio suggest overvaluation
  • ↓Net debt/EBITDA at 5.6x highlights leverage concerns
  • ↓Stock down ~9.9% over seven days signals negative momentum
  • ↓Geopolitical tensions may dampen commercial aftermarket demand
  • ↓Acquisition-related dilution could compress margins by ~200bps
  • ↓High leverage and negative momentum factors pose downside risks

Investment themes with TDG

Defense↓ -0.89%

Military equipment and defense contractors

BWXT · RKLB · CRS
Drones↓ -2.03%

Unmanned aerial vehicles and related technology

AVAV · ONDS · RCAT

Earnings Call · Q2 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-08-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • In the second quarter, our organic growth rate was approximately 11%, and all market channels contributed to this growth as previously discussed by Mike and Joel.
  • For the full fiscal year, we now expect our free cash flow guidance to be closer to $2.5 billion, an increase from the prior guide of $2.4 billion.
  • We ended the quarter with a sizable cash balance of $3.9 billion, which includes $2 billion of cash from new debt raised in Q1.

Bear points

  • free cash flow, which we traditionally define as EBITDA less cash interest payments, capex and cash taxes, was approximately $350 million for the quarter. This is lower than our average quarterly free cash flow conversion due to the timing of our interest and tax payments in the quarter.
  • an investment of net working capital consumed approximately $170 million for the quarter.
  • However, excluding the Middle East, March RPM growth was 8%, highlighting strong demand in other regions of the world. But we remain cautious here. Ultimately, the impact felt will depend upon the duration of the conflict.
Read full transcript analysis ›