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Upbound Group Inc

Upbound Group Inc

UPBD
$22.16USD↓-2.64%-0.60 today

MARKET CAP

1.3B

P/E (TTM)

5.3x

FWD P/E

4.8x

DAY RANGE

$22 – $23

52W RANGE

$16
$28

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

UPBD sits in a Stage 2 advancing regime with clear medium-term bullish structure confirmed by Bullish Pivot Point, Momentum Breakout, and an active Lockout Rally. Despite extreme overbought readings, the Lockout Rally override enforces a bullish short-term bias, justifying immediate Buy Now participation above rising EMAs to capture continuation. Key risks include rapid exhaustion of forced demand and any breakdown below the 9/21 EMA support.

  • ↑Earnings yield ~2.5 and book-to-price 0.64 indicate undervaluation
  • ↑Q1 net cash flow $171M up from $148M YoY supports growth
  • ↓Expected revenue declines due to negative growth outlook
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Upbound Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is a diversified financial services company that specializes in providing flexible financial solutions, particularly for underserved consumers. Its primary segments include Rent-A-Center, ASEMA, and the recently acquired Bridget brand. Upbound aims to position itself as a tech-enabled platform that adapts to changing consumer needs, especially in a challenging macroeconomic landscape, making it a front-runner in the financial wellness space.

Bull says

  • ↑Earnings yield ~2.5 and book-to-price 0.64 indicate undervaluation
  • ↑Q1 net cash flow $171M up from $148M YoY supports growth
  • ↑Quarterly dividend $0.39 yields ~8%, appealing to income investors
  • ↑Analyst consensus “Buy” with $31.33 price target implies upside
  • ↑Hired CTO to advance tech-enabled platform and efficiency
  • ↑Revenue +3.7% YoY to $1.2B; Adjusted EBITDA +8% to $136M

Bear says

  • ↓Expected revenue declines due to negative growth outlook
  • ↓Elevated leverage risks financial strain if cash flow falters
  • ↓High volatility and negative momentum may spur sell-offs
  • ↓Profitability pressures suggest tightening margins and inefficiencies
  • ↓Regulatory/legal accruals ~$72M heighten compliance risks
  • ↓Weak growth and profitability amid high leverage amplify risk

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-03-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We feel like that's the right approach given the uncertainty in the market. As far as the categories and maybe where the GMV is coming from, I would say most categories were down year over year in the kind of low single-digit area. But for us, when you look at when we tightened we really tightened around the jewelry category, and that was down probably low to mid-teens. But generally, I would say it's an underwriting story around first quarter GMB performance.
  • Subscriber growth at 27% for the quarter and then ARPU up 12%, which is a great sign. EBITDA contribution of 23 million at almost 35% margin.
  • the pilot, over 90% of them are actually opening an account, which just tells you the level of demand and the level of conversion that that product is going to do.

Bear points

  • the environment doesn't lend us to be really aggressive on the new products.
  • an immediate shock just because people have to also get their arms around where it's going, the impact, how long it's going to be, and those kind of things.
  • we think that's the right position to take, not knowing exactly how long or the impacts of of the volatility in the market and the rising cost, how that's going to impact the consumer.
Read full transcript analysis ›