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/VGZ
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VGZ

VGZ

VGZ
$1.54USD↓-0.65%-0.01 today

MARKET CAP

224.8M

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$1 – $2

52W RANGE

$1
$3

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Vista Gold Corp. (NYSE: VGZ) is a development-stage gold mining company focused on advancing its flagship Mt. Todd Gold Project in Australia. Positioned within a Tier 1 mining jurisdiction, Vista aims to leverage favorable mining conditions to maximize its resource potential. The company is well-integrated in the gold mining sector, aiming to capitalize on a rising gold price environment while ensuring compliance with ESG standards.

Bull says

  • ↑Mt. Todd project NPV of $1.1 billion at $2,500/oz with a 27.8% IRR.
  • ↑Feasibility study lowers initial capex to $425 million, boosting efficiency to $93/oz.
  • ↑Potential $300 million annual cash flow at $3,500/oz gold.
  • ↑Detailed engineering starts in 2027; first production expected mid-2029.
  • ↑Russell 2000 inclusion increases liquidity and institutional interest.
  • ↑Dividend yield of 1.39% and strong momentum factors attract investors.

Bear says

  • ↓Reported net loss of $7.5 million in 2025 vs. $11.2 million income in 2024.
  • ↓High leverage risk signals elevated debt burden and financing strain.
  • ↓Weak profitability and negative revisions factors point to earnings pressure.
  • ↓Project value highly sensitive to gold price fluctuations.
  • ↓Ongoing equity raises may dilute existing shareholders’ stakes.
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and revision signals underscore downward risk.

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-03-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • The completion of the Mount Todd feasibility study in July marked an important milestone for both the project and VISTA.
  • The completion of the new feasibility study was a defining moment for Mount Todd and VISTA.
  • At a $3,300 gold price, the NPV-5 was estimated to be 2.2 billion with an IRR, or an internal rate of return of 44.7%, and a payback period of 1.7 years.

Bear points

  • Overall, VISTA reported a net loss of $7.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2025. This compared to net income of $11.2 million for 2024.
  • First, we recognized a $16.9 million gain in 2024 that related to our grantable royalty interest to Wheaton Precious Metals.
  • issued a bunch of additional outstanding shares to finance this part of the project, raising concerns among current shareholders about potential dilution.
Read full transcript analysis ›