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/HOG
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Harley-Davidson Inc

Harley-Davidson Inc

HOG
$26.58USD↓-0.86%-0.23 today

MARKET CAP

2.8B

P/E (TTM)

14.4x

FWD P/E

20.5x

DAY RANGE

$26 – $27

52W RANGE

$17
$31

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

The stock remains in a medium-term advancing phase with a bullish HH/HL structure supported by rising EMAs, while long-term trend is still down; short-term timing is favorable after a pullback into the 9/21 EMAs with no exhaustion signs, but resistance tests and distribution risk warrant disciplined entry near support zones.

  • ↑HDFS partnership with KKR/PIMCO unlocks $1.25 B cash and adds $275–300 M operating income.
  • ↑Dealer inventory cut 22% YoY pre-peak season supports dealer profitability.
  • ↓Q1 revenue down 12% YoY to $1.2 B; EPS slid to $0.22 from $1.07.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is a leading manufacturer in the heavyweight motorcycle sector, renowned for its iconic brand and strong community of riders. It specializes in producing heavyweight cruiser bikes and has a significant market presence across the globe. Currently, the company is undergoing a strategic transformation named "Back to the Bricks," aiming to revitalize sales and enhance dealer profitability amidst a challenging consumer landscape and economic pressures.

Bull says

  • ↑HDFS partnership with KKR/PIMCO unlocks $1.25 B cash and adds $275–300 M operating income.
  • ↑Dealer inventory cut 22% YoY pre-peak season supports dealer profitability.
  • ↑Sportster reintroduction targets high rider demand and sales growth.
  • ↑LiveWire electric segment revenue jumped 87% YoY, signaling EV potential.
  • ↑North American retail sales rose 14% YoY; annual sales guide 130–135 K units.
  • ↑High earnings yield and strong book-to-price backing suggest attractive valuation.

Bear says

  • ↓Q1 revenue down 12% YoY to $1.2 B; EPS slid to $0.22 from $1.07.
  • ↓Gross margin declined to 25.3% from 29.1% YoY, elevating profitability risk.
  • ↓HDFS revenue plunged 54% YoY, highlighting financing-segment weakness.
  • ↓Projected tariffs of $75–90 M in 2026 further pressure margins.
  • ↓“Back to the Bricks” execution risk may limit dealer and market recovery.
  • ↓Weak growth factors and negative momentum indicate investor caution.

Investment themes with HOG

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Buybacks↑ +0.48%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-09-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • In Q1, North American retail sales of new motorcycles were up 14% versus prior year, with approximately 24,000 motorcycles sold.
  • We expect this improvement in healthy dealer inventory to pay dividends in future periods and believe it sets Harley-Davidson and our dealers up for greater success.
  • While we are not changing our financial guidance, we would note that our optimism on the year has increased.

Bear points

  • Consolidated revenue in the first quarter was down 12%, driven primarily by HDFS revenue being down 54%.
  • Consolidated operating income in the first quarter came in at $23 million compared to operating income of $160 million in Q1 of 2025.
  • In Q1, HDMC revenue decreased by 2%, coming in at $1.1 billion.
Read full transcript analysis ›