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Pagaya Technologies Ltd

Pagaya Technologies Ltd

PGY
$17.15USD↓-1.94%-0.34 today

MARKET CAP

1.4B

P/E (TTM)

11.3x

FWD P/E

10.4x

DAY RANGE

$17 – $18

52W RANGE

$10
$45

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

PGY remains in a Stage 2 advancing medium-term structure with clear higher lows from the March bottom, but is currently pulling back beneath its short-term EMAs and overbought conditions warn against immediate entry. Execution is best deferred into the rising 50 DMA support zone on a shallow pullback, aligning with the speculative strategy’s preference for structural confirmation before participation.

  • ↑Q1 revenue $318M, 10% YoY growth; Adjusted EBITDA $94M (29.6% margin).
  • ↑Five straight profitable quarters; GAAP net income $25M confirms stability.
  • ↓Leverage ratio elevated; debt management could strain cash flows if rates rise.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: PGY) operates within the fintech sector, offering a technology-enabled consumer lending platform that leverages advanced data analytics and machine learning to optimize loan origination across various segments such as personal loans, auto loans, and point-of-sale lending. Pagaya's innovative B2B2C model collaborates with a diverse network of lenders, positioning the company as a key player in the evolving consumer credit ecosystem.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 revenue $318M, 10% YoY growth; Adjusted EBITDA $94M (29.6% margin).
  • ↑Five straight profitable quarters; GAAP net income $25M confirms stability.
  • ↑Network volume $2.6B (+9% YoY; +23% ex-First Republic loans); four new partners.
  • ↑High earnings yield and positive analyst revisions support valuation upside.
  • ↑Proprietary data and ML‐driven loan engine enhance competitive moat.
  • ↑Raised $2.1B through four ABS transactions, bolstering liquidity.

Bear says

  • ↓Leverage ratio elevated; debt management could strain cash flows if rates rise.
  • ↓Stock volatility is high; share price may face sharp drawdowns.
  • ↓Intense competition from banks and fintech reduces margin potential.
  • ↓Guidance for $100M–$150M credit impairments underscores credit quality risk.
  • ↓Weak profitability indicators and no dividend yield may dampen appetite.
  • ↓Regulatory and macro uncertainties could disrupt growth and lending performance.

Investment themes with PGY

FinTech Lending↓ -0.02%

Financial technology companies providing loans

SOFI · COIN · FIS

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-11-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • For the first quarter of 2026, we reported revenue of $318 million, fee revenue less production cost of $121 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $94 million.
  • Network volume was 2.6 billion, up 9% year-over-year, and 23% excluding SFR from the same quarter last year.
  • adjusted EBITDA was 94 million up 15 million with a margin of 29.6%, an increase of 200 basis points year over year.

Bear points

  • Gains and losses on investments in loan and securities amounted to a loss of $38 million.
  • the fair value of the overall investment portfolio and allowances prior to new additions was adjusted downward by $21 million compared to $50 million in the prior quarter.
  • While volatile markets may create some near-term earning pressure, the diversified funding structure we have built allow us to lean on different sources depending on market conditions, giving us real flexibility.
Read full transcript analysis ›