Lumida
/TNL
⌘K
Travel + Leisure Co

Travel + Leisure Co

TNL
$73.27USD↓-2.93%-2.21 today

MARKET CAP

4.6B

P/E (TTM)

10.9x

FWD P/E

9.1x

DAY RANGE

$73 – $76

52W RANGE

$56
$81

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

TNL is entrenched in a Stage 3 distribution phase with active Double Top and Bullish Exhaustion patterns signaling waning buyer conviction. The 9- and 21-period EMAs have flattened and turned down, and price is consistently rejecting at this cluster, supported by neutral OB/OS and mid-range RSI/Options readings. Medium-term structure favors bearish engagement into rallies, with elevated risk of transition into Stage 4 if further downside follow-through emerges. Execution is Sell Now on rallies into the EMA resistance zone.

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue rose 3% YoY to $961M; adjusted EBITDA +11% to $225M
  • ↑EPS grew 31% to $1.45; free-cash-flow conversion ~50% of EBITDA supports reinvestment
  • ↓Travel & Membership segment revenues are declining amid structural exchange changes
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Travel + Leisure Co. (NYSE: TNL) is a prominent player in the vacation ownership and travel services sector, specializing in facilitating leisure travel experiences through a diverse portfolio that includes recognizable brands and multi-brand strategies. The company emphasizes customer satisfaction and innovation, positioning itself well to capture evolving consumer dynamics and preferences. As the sector rebounds from economic challenges, Travel + Leisure is focused on enhancing its brand portfolio and customer engagement, making it a relevant participant in the growing travel and leisure market.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue rose 3% YoY to $961M; adjusted EBITDA +11% to $225M
  • ↑EPS grew 31% to $1.45; free-cash-flow conversion ~50% of EBITDA supports reinvestment
  • ↑Margaritaville VOI sales near $150M annually; Eddie Bauer Adventure Club recently launched
  • ↑Returned $128M via 7% dividend hike to $0.60/share and share repurchases
  • ↑Customer retention 97%; >65% of new owners from younger demographics
  • ↑High earnings yield and positive momentum factors suggest valuation upside

Bear says

  • ↓Travel & Membership segment revenues are declining amid structural exchange changes
  • ↓Early-stage loan delinquencies rising; provisions at 21% threaten credit quality
  • ↓Net leverage roughly 2.4× EBITDA; high debt raises refinancing and rate risks
  • ↓Consumer discretionary cyclicality could cut vacation demand if economic growth slows
  • ↓Negative earnings revisions and weak profitability factors signal cautious outlook
  • ↓Moderate buy consensus may understate downside if consumer sentiment deteriorates

Investment themes with TNL

Travel & Leisure↑ +0.20%

Consumer travel services and hospitality experiences

EXPE · ABNB · MAR
High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Buybacks↑ +0.48%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-23-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • first quarter results were ahead of our expectations, continuing the trajectory we discussed on our February call, despite a more volatile macro backdrop.
  • What stands out is not just the strength of our results, but how the business performs across different environments.
  • Revenue grew 3%, EBITDA grew 11%, Net income grew 22% and earnings per share grew 31%, with tour flow feeding the top line and operating leverage and capital allocation driving outsized growth in earnings per share.

Bear points

  • We are seeing some movement in early-stage delinquencies, particularly in more recent vintages, which we would expect to influence provision over time.
  • we still expect our full year provision rate to be modestly below prior year levels.
  • Exchange membership was approximately 3.3 million subscribers, down about 2% year-over-year.
Read full transcript analysis ›