Universal Insurance Holdings Inc

UVE remains entrenched in a Stage 4 decline with a clear lower‐high/lower‐low downtrend and price below its EMAs, confirming supply dominance. The medium‐term bias is bearish while the long‐term uptrend remains intact. Short‐term price is pulling back into the declining 9/20 EMA region as resistance. We recommend trimming exposure and waiting for a rally into those EMAs before re-engaging the bearish stance.

• ↑Adjusted ROE 38.5% and EPS $2.00 vs $1.47 estimate
• ↑Direct premiums written rose 8.5% YoY, with 36.9% non-Florida growth
• ↓Intense Florida competition could erode pricing and profit margins