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Velocity Financial Inc

Velocity Financial Inc

VEL
$17.50USD↓-1.24%-0.22 today

MARKET CAP

687.0M

P/E (TTM)

5.8x

FWD P/E

6.2x

DAY RANGE

$17 – $18

52W RANGE

$16
$21

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

The asset remains in a persistent Stage 4 decline, trading below its short- and intermediate-term EMAs with clear lower highs and lower lows. Price is consolidating just under the 9/20 EMA confluence with neutral RSI, indicating lack of support. The medium-term directional bias is bearish, and short-term conditions favor immediate selling on any retest of EMA resistance. Execution focus is selling into the EMA zone with a rejection-based approach.

  • ↑Loan production surged 49% YoY to $2.7B in 2025.
  • ↑Pre-tax ROE at 26% alongside a consistent 3.56% NIM.
  • ↓Interest‐rate sensitivity threatens stability of 3.56% NIM.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Velocity Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VEL) is a leading player in the mortgage lending sector, focusing on originating, servicing, and managing loans secured by real estate. The company operates primarily in the high-yield lending space, providing a diverse range of financial solutions for both commercial and residential markets. Velocity has strategically positioned itself to capitalize on favorable market conditions while maintaining stringent credit standards, showcasing effective asset management practices.

Bull says

  • ↑Loan production surged 49% YoY to $2.7B in 2025.
  • ↑Pre-tax ROE at 26% alongside a consistent 3.56% NIM.
  • ↑Maintains low 64.9% LTV and cut NPL rate 70bps to 10.1%.
  • ↑Issued $500M unsecured debt to bolster liquidity and flexibility.
  • ↑High earnings yield and 0.93 book-to-price ratio imply undervaluation.
  • ↑Positive rating upgrades and strong origination pipeline support growth.

Bear says

  • ↓Interest‐rate sensitivity threatens stability of 3.56% NIM.
  • ↓NPL rate still elevated at 10.1%, posing credit risks.
  • ↓Analyst earnings revisions trending down, dimming growth outlook.
  • ↓High leverage raises debt‐servicing strain in tighter markets.
  • ↓Negative momentum and weak liquidity curb operational flexibility.
  • ↓Smaller scale vs peers limits competitive positioning.

Investment themes with VEL

Others↑ +0.32%

Miscellaneous or uncategorized companies

ATAI · SVIX · SVXY

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-08-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • the weighted average coupon on new health and investment originations continuing to come in strong at 10.1%
  • as a result of the strong Q1 production, page 5 shows the growth in our overall loan portfolio at the end of Q1. The total loan portfolios of March 31st was $6.8 billion in UPB, and that's a 5.3% increase from Q4. and a 25.6% increase in the portfolio year-over-year compared to Q1 of 25.
  • our portfolio yield increased by 12 basis points year over year due to continued loan production at those healthy WACs.

Bear points

  • our non-performing loan rate at the end of Q1, in the left table, was 10.1%.
  • Both these valuation adjustments are required in the U.S. GAAP. The unrealized loss valuation adjustment on our non-performing fair value loans represents what could be achieved for those loans transacted between a willing buyer and a willing seller in the secondary market.
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