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/WLFC
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Willis Lease Finance Corp

Willis Lease Finance Corp

WLFC
$191.65USD↓-2.22%-4.35 today

MARKET CAP

1.3B

P/E (TTM)

16.4x

FWD P/E

15.8x

DAY RANGE

$189 – $195

52W RANGE

$114
$245

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowHigh

WLFC is in a Stage 3 distribution phase marked by a decisive support failure below the 50 DMA and a down-sloping EMA regime, confirming accelerating distribution. The medium-term bias is clearly bearish, and only sell-side participation on rallies into the 9/21/50 EMAs aligns with structure. Short-term momentum is negative, so selling now on any bounce toward moving-average resistance offers optimal execution. A sustained regain and acceptance above the EMAs would invalidate this bearish stance.

  • ↑Q1 revenue hit $77.4M (+14.2% QoQ), 35% above estimates
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA reached $124M (+19.9% YoY), supporting $0.40 dividend
  • ↓Elevated leverage risk with high debt amid rising rates
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (NASDAQ: WLFC) is a leading player in the aviation finance sector, specializing in the leasing of aircraft engines, parts, and maintenance solutions. The company capitalizes on the growing demand for engine leasing, particularly as airlines are increasingly opting for leasing strategies over ownership due to the high costs associated with new engine procurement. WLFC's diversified portfolio emphasizes operational efficiency, strategic partnerships, and adaptability to market dynamics, positioning it well in a resilient industry.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 revenue hit $77.4M (+14.2% QoQ), 35% above estimates
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA reached $124M (+19.9% YoY), supporting $0.40 dividend
  • ↑New $1.75B revolving credit facility boosts liquidity for growth
  • ↑Modern engines account for over 50% of portfolio amid high fuel prices
  • ↑Strong momentum factors and institutional 13F ownership underpin stock uplift
  • ↑Favorable interest rate sensitivity aids financing advantage

Bear says

  • ↓Elevated leverage risk with high debt amid rising rates
  • ↓Weak profitability: negative earnings yield and margin pressure
  • ↓Earnings revisions trend down, signaling potential value trap
  • ↓Maintenance revenue variability undermines cash flow consistency
  • ↓Dividend sustainability uncertain amid rising G&A and expansion costs
  • ↓Size and liquidity constraints may limit funding options

Earnings Call · Q1 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 06-04-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Q1 produced record quarterly revenues of $157.7 million, driving 25.3 million of earnings before taxes, or EBT.
  • Our consolidated revenues of 157.7 million were up 33% from the comparable quarter in 2024, and were driven by our core lease rent revenue and maintenance reserve revenues, which were further enhanced by our vertically integrated services business.
  • Core lease rent revenue for the quarter was $67.7 million, and interest revenue was $3.9 million, which reflects interest income on long-term loan-like financings.

Bear points

  • Our trading activity tends to be lumpy and varies from quarter to quarter due to the nature of the business.
  • Net cash provided by operating activities was $41.0 million in the first quarter of 2025 as compared to $59.8 million in the first quarter of 2024. The decrease was predominantly related to working capital, where relative changes in accounts payable had a significant influence on the net cash provided by operating activities.
  • Net finance costs were $32.1 million in the first quarter compared to $23.0 million in the comparable period in 2024. The increase in costs was related to an increase in indebtedness as total debt obligations increased from $1.7 billion at March 2024 to $2.2 billion at March 2025, as well as an increase in the quarterly weighted average cost of debt, which rose from 4.56 in Q1 2024 to 6.16 in Q1 2025.
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